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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 56

Washington Commanders 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to LV 9, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.48 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP