4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 40

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(:47) 8-B.Pinion punts 20 yards to BUF 20, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.54 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP