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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2021-12-12 · 16:25 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

BUF
36.3%
TB
63.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.174 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Tom Brady (TB) +0.194 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.140 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 23
–
TB 28
Projected margin: TB by 5 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

BUF

Star Lotulelei DT Out Toe
Tommy Sweeney TE Out Hip
Reggie Gilliam FB Questionable Ankle
Efe Obada DE Questionable Hip

TB

Jordan Whitehead S Out Calf
Jaelon Darden WR Questionable Concussion
Jamel Dean CB Questionable Concussion
William Gholston DE Questionable Wrist
Ryan Jensen C Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 27
–
TB 33

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:22 TD TB (8:22) (Shotgun) 7-L.Fournette right tackle for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – TB 6
  • Q2 13:40 FG TB (13:40) 3-R.Succop 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. BUF 0 – TB 10
  • Q2 09:32 FG BUF (9:32) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. BUF 3 – TB 10
  • Q2 07:15 TD TB (7:15) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – TB 16
  • Q2 01:32 TD TB (1:32) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – TB 23
  • Q3 07:34 TD BUF (7:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – TB 24
  • Q4 11:24 FG TB (11:24) 3-R.Succop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. BUF 10 – TB 27
  • Q4 09:11 TD BUF (9:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – TB 27
  • Q4 04:57 TD BUF (4:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 13-G.Davis for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – TB 27
  • Q4 00:25 FG BUF (:25) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. BUF 27 – TB 27
  • Q5 05:42 TD TB (5:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 16-B.Perriman for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 27 – TB 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:02) 8-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to BUF 14, Center-97-Z.Triner. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 18 for 4 yards (48-G.Stuard).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:05) 3-M.Haack punts 44 yards to TB 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 1-J.Darden to TB 33 for 10 yards (9-A.Smith; 42-J.Giles-Harris).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:27) 3-M.Haack punts 39 yards to TB 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (13:40) 3-R.Succop 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (9:32) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:20) 3-M.Haack punts 34 yards to TB 28, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 56%

    (:47) 8-B.Pinion punts 20 yards to BUF 20, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:13) 3-M.Haack punts 61 yards to TB 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (12:34) (Punt formation) 22-M.Breida left end to BUF 42 for -3 yards (79-P.O'Connor).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 70%

    (11:15) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 84-C.Brate (49-T.Edmunds). PENALTY on BUF-91-E.Oliver, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 78%

    (9:17) (Shotgun) 71-R.Bates reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen right end to TB 26 for 4 yards (31-A.Winfield).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:02) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to BUF 23, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-43-R.Cockrell.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:18) 3-M.Haack punts 45 yards to TB 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (11:24) 3-R.Succop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:17) 8-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to TB 46, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-48-G.Stuard.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 16 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:16) 8-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to BUF 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 23 for 5 yards (48-G.Stuard; 52-K.Britt).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis pushed ob at BUF 45 for 5 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 7 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (:25) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.