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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 63

Buffalo Bills 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(:13) 3-M.Haack punts 61 yards to TB 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.12 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -1.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model