4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 30

Buffalo Bills 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(9:17) (Shotgun) 71-R.Bates reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen right end to TB 26 for 4 yards (31-A.Winfield).

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.06 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model