Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(10:05) 3-M.Haack punts 44 yards to TB 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 1-J.Darden to TB 33 for 10 yards (9-A.Smith; 42-J.Giles-Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.67 EP
56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 67, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model