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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 3-R.Succop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +3.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.84 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 6, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP