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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 8-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to BUF 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 23 for 5 yards (48-G.Stuard; 52-K.Britt).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.58 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model