Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 54

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

(5:27) 3-M.Haack punts 39 yards to TB 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.69 EP
63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model