4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 3-R.Succop 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.17 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 5, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP