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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 2

Green Bay Packers 35 – Chicago Bears 27

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 2-M.Crosby 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +3.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.93 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 2, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP