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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2021-12-12 · 20:20 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 11.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

CHI
20.9%
GB
79.1%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.188 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.225 EPA/dropback (CHI starting Justin Fields in place of Andy Dalton)
  • GB offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • GB on 7 more days rest than CHI
  • CHI offense: -0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 18
–
GB 29
Projected margin: GB by 11 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

CHI

Cassius Marsh LB Out Knee
Andy Dalton QB Doubtful left Hand
Marquise Goodwin WR Doubtful Foot
Mario Edwards DT Questionable Ribs
Akiem Hicks DT Questionable Ankle

GB

David Bakhtiari T Out Knee
Randall Cobb WR Out Core
De'Vondre Campbell LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 30
–
GB 45

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 28 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:24 FG CHI (4:24) 2-C.Santos 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – GB 0
  • Q2 11:17 TD CHI (11:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 17-J.Grant for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – GB 0
  • Q2 06:04 TD GB (6:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-A.Lazard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – GB 6
  • Q2 05:09 TD GB (5:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB 45. 29-R.Douglas for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – GB 13
  • Q2 03:30 TD CHI (3:30) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 10-D.Byrd for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – GB 14
  • Q2 01:54 TD CHI (1:54) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CHI 3, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Grant for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 23 – GB 14
  • Q2 00:52 TD GB (:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 24 – GB 20
  • Q2 00:05 FG CHI (:05) 2-C.Santos 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 27 – GB 21
  • Q3 09:28 TD GB (9:28) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 27 – GB 27
  • Q3 08:32 TD GB (8:32) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 27 – GB 34
  • Q3 02:55 FG GB (2:55) 2-M.Crosby 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. CHI 27 – GB 38
  • Q4 04:36 TD GB (4:36) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 27 – GB 44
  • Q4 01:26 FG CHI (1:26) 2-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 30 – GB 45

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 53%

    (11:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:22) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to CHI 22, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Grant pushed ob at GB 44 for 34 yards (7-C.Bojorquez).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (4:24) 2-C.Santos 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (15:00) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to CHI 11, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Grant to CHI 11 for no gain (42-O.Burks).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 99%

    (6:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-A.Lazard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 27%

    (1:54) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CHI 3, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Grant for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:45) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to GB 39, Center-48-P.Scales. 8-Am.Rodgers ran ob at CHI 48 for 13 yards (26-D.Bush).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 99%

    (2:55) 2-M.Crosby 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 11 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:39) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to GB 46, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 30%

    (:02) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 22 yards to CHI 27, Center-46-S.Wirtel, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to GB 14, Center-48-P.Scales. 8-Am.Rodgers ran ob at GB 29 for 15 yards (22-K.Vildor).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 85%

    (1:26) 2-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 13 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.72 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 82%

    (:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 39-C.Sullivan [97-K.Clark] at GB 9. 39-C.Sullivan to GB 10 for 1 yard (11-D.Mooney).