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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 79

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to CHI 22, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Grant pushed ob at GB 44 for 34 yards (7-C.Bojorquez).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 36, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model