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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 88

Chicago Bears 27 – Green Bay Packers 38

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to GB 46, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.88 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model