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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 25

Chicago Bears 27 – Green Bay Packers 45

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 2-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +2.04 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model