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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 27

Chicago Bears 30 – Green Bay Packers 45

What Actually Happened

(:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 39-C.Sullivan [97-K.Clark] at GB 9. 39-C.Sullivan to GB 10 for 1 yard (11-D.Mooney).

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.24 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.72 EP