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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 5

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 2-C.Santos 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP