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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 56

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to CHI 11, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Grant to CHI 11 for no gain (42-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.12 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model