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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 46

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 11

What Actually Happened

(:41) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at WAS 42 for -12 yards (11-M.Parsons). FUMBLES (11-M.Parsons) [11-M.Parsons], RECOVERED by DAL-92-D.Armstrong at WAS 37. 92-D.Armstrong for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.19 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model