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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2021-12-12 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 💨 Windy Spread -6.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

DAL
53.5%
WAS
46.5%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.142 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL defense: -0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DAL on 3 more days rest than WAS
  • Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

DAL 22
–
WAS 21
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

DAL

Tony Pollard RB Questionable Foot

WAS

Jordan Kunaszyk LB Out Hamstring
Wes Schweitzer G Out Ankle
Jamin Davis LB Questionable Concussion
Landon Collins S Questionable Foot
J.D. McKissic RB Questionable Concussion
Curtis Samuel WR Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 27
–
WAS 20

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:41 FG DAL (9:41) 2-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – WAS 0
  • Q1 03:45 TD DAL (3:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-A.Cooper for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-98-M.Ioannidis, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. DAL 9 – WAS 0
  • Q1 00:41 TD DAL (:41) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at WAS 42 for -12 yards (11-M.Parsons). FUMBLES (11-M.Parsons) [11-M.Parsons], RECOVERED by DAL-92-D.Armstrong at WAS 37. 92-D.Armstrong for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – WAS 0
  • Q2 05:02 FG DAL (5:02) 2-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 21 – WAS 0
  • Q2 00:19 FG DAL (:19) 2-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 24 – WAS 0
  • Q3 07:06 TD WAS (7:06) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Sims (7-T.Diggs). Washington challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left to 11-C.Sims for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 24 – WAS 6
  • Q3 01:39 FG DAL (1:39) 2-G.Zuerlein 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 27 – WAS 8
  • Q4 05:12 TD WAS (5:12) (Shotgun) 35-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 27 – WAS 14
  • Q4 04:24 TD WAS (4:24) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 55-C.Holcomb at DAL 31. 55-C.Holcomb for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 27 – WAS 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 7 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (9:41) 2-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 13 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:17) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to DAL 5, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 1-C.Wilson to DAL 5 for no gain (51-D.Mayo). Penalty on DAL-32-C.Clement, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 30%

    (:41) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at WAS 42 for -12 yards (11-M.Parsons). FUMBLES (11-M.Parsons) [11-M.Parsons], RECOVERED by DAL-92-D.Armstrong at WAS 37. 92-D.Armstrong for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 17 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:28) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to DAL 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 18 for 4 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 12 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:25) 5-B.Anger punts 43 yards to WAS 41, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:31) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 90%

    (5:02) 2-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:25) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to DAL 22, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 7-T.Diggs to DAL 23 for 1 yard (11-C.Sims). Penalty on DAL-93-T.Basham, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 18 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 90%

    (:19) 2-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:50) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to DAL 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 43%

    (9:24) 5-B.Anger punts 31 yards to WAS 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:14) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (1:39) 2-G.Zuerlein 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (14:25) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to DAL 39, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:02) 5-B.Anger punts 35 yards to WAS 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:07) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to DAL 33, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 20 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:35) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to WAS 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-29-C.Goodwin.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (5:12) (Shotgun) 35-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (3:16) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to WAS 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-29-C.Goodwin.