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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 17 at the 71

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 18

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to DAL 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 18 for 4 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.84 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 29, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model