4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 19

Dallas Cowboys 18 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 2-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.84 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 19, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model