Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 75

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to DAL 22, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 7-T.Diggs to DAL 23 for 1 yard (11-C.Sims). Penalty on DAL-93-T.Basham, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.10 EP
71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 75, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model