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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 18 at the 19

Dallas Cowboys 21 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(:19) 2-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.14 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 19, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model