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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Washington Commanders 8

What Actually Happened

(4:14) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.87 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP