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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 10

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Washington Commanders 8

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 2-G.Zuerlein 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.71 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 10, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP