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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 80

Washington Commanders 8 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(14:25) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to DAL 39, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.86 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 37, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model