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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 20 at the 77

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Washington Commanders 8

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to WAS 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-29-C.Goodwin.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.78 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model