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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 80

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to WAS 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-29-C.Goodwin.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.80 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 37, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model