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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.08 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model