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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Urban Meyer
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2021-12-12 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

JAX
26.3%
TEN
73.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • TEN offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • TEN on 7 more days rest than JAX
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX): -0.084 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX defense: +0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 18
–
TEN 26
Projected margin: TEN by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

JAX

Brandon Linder C Out Back

TEN

Zach Cunningham LB Out Not Injury Related
Tommy Hudson TE Out Ankle
Janoris Jenkins CB Out Ankle
David Long LB Out Hamstring
Teair Tart DT Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 0
–
TEN 20

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:07 TD TEN (10:07) (No Huddle) 7-D.Foreman left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – TEN 6
  • Q2 03:15 FG TEN (3:15) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. JAX 0 – TEN 10
  • Q3 02:56 TD TEN (2:56) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – TEN 16
  • Q4 02:24 FG TEN (2:24) 14-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. JAX 0 – TEN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 19 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (5:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 24 for 2 yards (49-C.Russell; 50-S.Quarterman).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 82%

    (:42) 14-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 49%

    (11:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 32 yards to TEN 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 13 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 86%

    (3:15) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to TEN 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 12 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:14) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to JAX 48, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-42-Jo.Jones.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 39%

    (10:54) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 4-J.Mickens.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to TEN 30, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 31 for 1 yard (27-C.Claybrooks).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:05) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to JAX 24, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 4-J.Mickens. PENALTY on TEN-29-D.Cruikshank, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 24.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 8 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:18) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to JAX 41, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 4-J.Mickens.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 18-L.Treadwell to TEN 47 for 12 yards (30-G.Mabin).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:30) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to JAX 18, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 4-J.Mickens.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (2:24) 14-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 33-D.Ogunbowale to JAX 30 for 3 yards (21-M.Farley, 90-N.Jones).