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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 11

Tennessee Titans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 14-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model