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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 29

Tennessee Titans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(:42) 14-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.47 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model