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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 44

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 32 yards to TEN 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.27 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP