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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 9

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 6-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 9, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model