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New York Giants

HC Joe Judge
@
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2021-12-12 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 9.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

NYG
29.2%
LAC
70.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.141 vs Mike Glennon (NYG) -0.218 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LAC offense: +0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.030 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 21
–
LAC 27
Projected margin: LAC by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NYG

Adoree' Jackson CB Out Quadricep
Daniel Jones QB Out Neck
Kadarius Toney WR Out Oblique
Danny Shelton DT Questionable Calf
Kenny Golladay WR Questionable Rib
Sterling Shepard WR Questionable Quadricep

LAC

Kyler Fackrell LB Out Knee
Alohi Gilman S Out Quadricep
Asante Samuel CB Out Concussion
Justin Jones DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 21
–
LAC 37

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:48 TD LAC (4:48) 30-A.Ekeler left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – LAC 6
  • Q1 01:35 TD NYG (1:35) 2-M.Glennon pass short right to 39-E.Penny for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-J.Bosa]. NYG 6 – LAC 7
  • Q2 12:13 TD LAC (12:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 5-J.Palmer for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – LAC 13
  • Q2 04:19 FG LAC (4:19) 6-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. NYG 7 – LAC 17
  • Q2 00:25 TD LAC (:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 15-J.Guyton for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-L.Carter]. NYG 7 – LAC 23
  • Q3 09:40 FG LAC (9:40) 6-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. NYG 7 – LAC 27
  • Q3 05:10 FG LAC (5:10) 6-D.Hopkins 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. NYG 7 – LAC 30
  • Q4 09:33 TD LAC (9:33) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 87-J.Cook for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – LAC 36
  • Q4 04:38 TD NYG (4:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass deep right to 26-S.Barkley for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – LAC 37
  • Q4 01:27 TD NYG (1:27) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon scrambles left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – LAC 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 34%

    (12:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (10:28) 1-T.Long punts 38 yards to NYG 20, Center-54-M.Overton. 83-P.Cooper to NYG 28 for 8 yards (57-A.Ogbongbemiga; 49-D.Tranquill). PENALTY on NYG-34-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 20.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:25) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LAC 40, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (10:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to LAC 22, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (4:19) 6-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (2:15) 9-R.Dixon punts 63 yards to LAC 4, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-31-K.Crossen.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:47) 1-T.Long punts 33 yards to LAC 41, Center-54-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 12 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 51%

    (:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 18 yards to LAC 25, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-95-Q.Roche.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (9:40) 6-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:05) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon pass incomplete short right to 31-K.Crossen.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 92%

    (5:10) 6-D.Hopkins 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 32%

    (:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon sacked at NYG 41 for -8 yards (97-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa) [97-J.Bosa], RECOVERED by LAC-93-J.Jones at NYG 41.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 49%

    (3:34) 1-T.Long punts 7 yards to NYG 37, Center-54-M.Overton, out of bounds.