4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 43

New York Giants 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 18 yards to LAC 25, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-95-Q.Roche.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.42 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model