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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 50

New York Giants 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.65 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -3.27 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP