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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 20

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 6-D.Hopkins 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.16 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model