Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 51

New York Giants 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 30

(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon sacked at NYG 41 for -8 yards (97-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa) [97-J.Bosa], RECOVERED by LAC-93-J.Jones at NYG 41.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.00 EP
67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.76 EP

KICK -1.30 EP

32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EP