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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 58

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 1-T.Long punts 38 yards to NYG 20, Center-54-M.Overton. 83-P.Cooper to NYG 28 for 8 yards (57-A.Ogbongbemiga; 49-D.Tranquill). PENALTY on NYG-34-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.66 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP