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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 44

Los Angeles Chargers 37 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 1-T.Long punts 7 yards to NYG 37, Center-54-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.57 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP