Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(13:11) 6-P.Harvin punts 49 yards to MIN 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 12-D.Westbrook ran ob at MIN 44 for 12 yards (45-B.Johnson). PENALTY on MIN-44-J.Metellus, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 32.

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.13 EP
70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 81, worth -4.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model