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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Thursday 2021-12-09 · 20:20 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

PIT
39.6%
MIN
60.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to MIN: Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.159 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) -0.010 EPA/dropback
  • MIN offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • MIN defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • PIT defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.014 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23
–
MIN 27
Projected margin: MIN by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

PIT

Isaiah Buggs DE Out Ankle
B.J. Finney C Out Back
Joe Haden CB Out Foot
Robert Spillane LB Out Knee

MIN

Christian Darrisaw T Out Ankle
Adam Thielen WR Out Ankle
Camryn Bynum S Questionable Ankle
Dalvin Cook RB Questionable Shoulder
Blake Lynch LB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 28
–
MIN 36

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:37 TD MIN (3:37) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – MIN 6
  • Q2 14:47 FG MIN (14:47) 1-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. PIT 0 – MIN 9
  • Q2 10:02 TD MIN (10:02) 64-B.Brandel reported in as eligible. 33-D.Cook right end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – MIN 15
  • Q2 02:25 TD MIN (2:25) 33-D.Cook right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – MIN 22
  • Q3 09:41 FG MIN (9:41) 1-G.Joseph 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. PIT 0 – MIN 26
  • Q3 06:18 FG MIN (6:18) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. PIT 0 – MIN 29
  • Q3 02:15 TD PIT (2:15) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – MIN 29
  • Q4 14:52 TD PIT (14:52) 22-N.Harris left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – MIN 29
  • Q4 12:17 TD PIT (12:17) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 13-J.Washington for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – MIN 29
  • Q4 11:00 TD MIN (11:00) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-K.Osborn for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – MIN 35
  • Q4 04:19 TD PIT (4:19) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 26 – MIN 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 70%

    (11:47) 1-G.Joseph 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 61%

    (8:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger scrambles up the middle to MIN 34 for 5 yards (90-S.Richardson). PENALTY on MIN-24-M.Alexander, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 34.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 12 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 78%

    (5:36) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (1:55) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to MIN 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 43 for 16 yards (54-U.Gilbert).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%

    (14:47) 1-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:11) 6-P.Harvin punts 49 yards to MIN 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 12-D.Westbrook ran ob at MIN 44 for 12 yards (45-B.Johnson). PENALTY on MIN-44-J.Metellus, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 32.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 14 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:46) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to MIN 40, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 32%

    (6:52) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to PIT 48 for 3 yards (93-J.Schobert).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 20 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:42) 6-P.Harvin punts 49 yards to MIN 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (:51) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to PIT 33, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 14 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:38) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to PIT 49, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 12-D.Westbrook to PIT 34 for 15 yards (44-D.Watt).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 14 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 88%

    (9:41) 1-G.Joseph 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (6:18) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:28) 3-J.Berry punts 49 yards to PIT 23, Center-42-A.DePaola. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 31 for 8 yards (45-T.Dye).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:02) 6-P.Harvin punts 34 yards to MIN 39, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:26) 3-J.Berry punts 51 yards to PIT 4, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-45-T.Dye.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 51%

    (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 11-C.Claypool to MIN 34 for 9 yards (21-B.Breeland).