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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 14 at the 85

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to MIN 40, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.10 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 85, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 43, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model