4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 14 at the 92

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to PIT 49, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 12-D.Westbrook to PIT 34 for 15 yards (44-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -3.37 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.76 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 92, worth -5.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 50, worth -2.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model