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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 7

Minnesota Vikings 26 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.19 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model