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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 29 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 3-J.Berry punts 49 yards to PIT 23, Center-42-A.DePaola. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 31 for 8 yards (45-T.Dye).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model