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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Minnesota Vikings 36

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 6-P.Harvin punts 34 yards to MIN 39, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 31, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model