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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 43

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 – Minnesota Vikings 36

What Actually Happened

(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 11-C.Claypool to MIN 34 for 9 yards (21-B.Breeland).

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.59 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.86 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model